pnut pnut Peanut Science 0095-3679 0095-3679 American Peanut Research and Education Society 10.3146/pnut.12.2.0012 10.3146/i0095-3679-12-2-12 Articles Development of Statistical Models to Simulate the Testing of Farmers Stock Peanuts for Aflatoxin Using Visual, Thin Layer Chromatography, and Minicolumn Methods1 T. B Whitaker 2, J. W Dickens 2, and V Chew 3 Agricultural Engineers, USDA, ARS, NCSU, Raleigh, NC 27695–7625 Mathematical Statistician, USDA, ARS, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611

1Paper No. 9550 of the Journal Series of the North Carolina Agricultural Research Service (NCARS), Raleigh, NC. The use of trade names in this publication does not imply endorsement by the United States Department of Agricuture or NCARS of the product named, nor criticism of similar ones not mentioned.

 7 1985 12 2 94 98 31 10 1985 American Peanut Research and Education Society 1985 American Peanut Research and Education Society Abstract

The negative binomial probability function was used to model the distribution of sample aflatoxin test results when replicated grade samples from farmers stock peanuts are analyzed by thin layer chromatography and minicolumn methods. The Poisson probability funtion was used to model the distribution of the number of kernels with visible Aspergillus flavus growth found in replicated grade samples of farmers stock peanuts when the visible A. flavus method is used. The probabilities of accepting a lot of farmers stock peanuts with given aflatoxin concentrations when using a 465-g grade sample and 2 different accept/reject levels were predicted with the models and compared to observed acceptance probabilities computed from previously published data for each of the 3 methods. The comparisons showed good agreement between the predicted acceptance probabilities and the observed acceptance probabilities.

 Key Words Aflatoxin; , sampling; , farmers stock peanuts; , methods; , minicolumn; , visible A. flavus; , A. flavus